Tim Shipman

There was a moment backstage, before I interviewed Kemi Badenoch for a Spectator event this week, when I felt like John Sergeant with Margaret Thatcher bearing down on him as he pronounced her leadership in difficulty. I suggested to Badenoch that she was a rare example of a politician I had changed my mind about. ‘You mean you were very negative before?’ she said, fixing me with the full alpha female glare. I muttered something placatory, but the truth is that a year ago I thought she was rubbish – and that was the mainstream view in her own party. She was arrogant, flat-footed, absenting herself from a stage that was being dominated by Nigel Farage, resistant to advice, convinced she was great at PMQs when even Keir Starmer was wiping the floor with her.

When he appeared on Question Time yesterday evening, Andy Burnham said the quiet bit out loud – he does intend to run for the Labour leadership, though he incorrectly stated that Wes Streeting has already triggered a contest. In fact, it might be on Burnham to do so if he wins the Makerfield by-election on 18 June. Those who have headed to the mean streets of Makerfield recently have found Burnham awkwardly bestriding the fence and talking up his local roots, as well as his achievements as mayor of Manchester, without looking like he’s measuring the curtains in Downing Street.

Darren Jones has become the government’s Walter Model, the general known during the second world war as ‘the Führer’s fireman’ for his deployment to shore up any position which appeared lost. In that capacity, Britain’s first Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister had the thankless task of presenting the government’s case to the House of Commons on Monday following the publication of 1,500 pages of documents relating to Peter Mandelson. Jones himself was spared direct embarrassment because none of his exchanges with the disgraced peer came to light in the trawl of memos, emails and WhatsApp exchanges.

Nothing illustrates the challenge facing Reform UK better than the strained interview Danny Kruger gave to the Today programme on Monday morning. Kruger, a former Tory MP who defected to Reform last September, has been charged by Nigel Farage with preparing the party for government. He clearly wanted the interview to be a high-minded examination of the intricacies of the Whitehall machinery. Instead, he had to deal with more pungent street politics. The interview quickly descended into questions about Robert Kenyon, the ‘plucky plumber’ and Reform candidate in the Makerfield by-election. Kruger, a thoughtful Christian, was clearly uncomfortable answering questions on sexual comments about Carol Vorderman which Kenyon had shared on social media in the past.

When the Labour party football team played a group of journalists at Loftus Road two years ago the hacks won 4-1. The politicians’ solitary goal came from a late penalty. When the referee pointed to the spot, the centre-forward stepped up, elbowing well-known names like Ed Balls, David Miliband and Sadiq Khan out of the way in his rush to grab the glory. There was a notable absentee that day. ‘Keir [Starmer] had been due to play, but he didn’t turn up,’ a witness recalls. ‘If he had been there, he’d probably have grabbed the ball and there might have been a tussle.’ Instead, Andy Burnham said: ‘This is mine,’ and calmly slotted it into the corner. ‘It was a perfect penalty.

What a week. A prime minister on the skids. A pretender to the throne resigning. The favourite putting his career on the line on what is likely to be, without question, the biggest by-election in British political history. Never has there been a straight-up contest to decide the next prime minister, with the most popular mayor up against the best political campaigner of the age, Nigel Farage, trying to run interference. Most of SW1 is already studying train times to Wigan. That hurdle cleared, the only question is who will be prime minister by the time of Labour’s party conference? And I have to tell you, Keir Starmer is not the outside bet here.

Josh Simons, the MP for Makerfield, has decided to stand aside and resign his seat so that Andy Burnham can fight a by-election and return to Parliament as a candidate for the Labour leadership. Burnham has just confirmed that he is seeking permission from the ruling National Executive Committee to stand. This is a high-stakes gamble for everyone involved. But then, in Labour politics right now, everything is Makerfield sits next door to Leigh, the parliamentary seat Andy Burnham used to hold. But it is far from safe territory. Simons won it at the last general election with a majority of only around 6,000 over Reform. Nigel Farage's party will contest this seat with all guns blazing. Most of the recent MRP superpolls put this down as a firm Reform win.